Do we expect too much of the British summer?
Published Date:
16 July 2008
Hopes were high after the first largely rain-free Wimbledon in years. But just days after Nadal nailed it, experts were declaring that this summer would be a washout. And sure enough, light rain soon became what experts called a European monsoon.
But despite soggy sandals and the sound of water dripping off the barbecue, should we admit defeat for another year?
Rob Hutchinson, weather forecaster for MeteoGroup UK, says headlines predicting a miserable summer could be wrong.
"The phrase Euro-pean monsoon is used to describe the return of westerly winds from the Atlantic," he says.
"These tend to appear around this time of year bringing large amounts of rain and some pretty unpleasant weather. They've been largely absent up until a few years ago – and what's brought them back is anyone's guess."
But the good thing is, according to Hutchin-son, the appearance of these early storms is not a definite predictor of weather patterns.
"At the moment the weather is looking unssettled but that's not to say that, fingers crossed, come August we won't get more dry and settled weather," he says.
"Although some newspapers are predicting what the weather will be like in months and months time, I'd say that was impossible."
He explains that even the most sophisticated computers struggle to accurately predict weather patterns more than 10 days in advance and, despite scientists' efforts to discover longer-term methods of weather prediction, they are still a long way from a foolproof technique.
"What you can do is take a stab in the dark," he says. "Some forecast agencies offer a prediction of the amount of rainfall coming this summer by looking at climate patterns and then working out what the average will be. At best, this is an unproven and unreliable technique."
But while many of us might feel the weather is getting worse each year, Hutchinson reminds us Britain has never been known for its temperate climate.
"Summer is the sunniest time of year but that's partly because we have so many more daylight hours. We do get more high pressure, which brings more settled weather, but I also think the public perception of summer has changed.
"We've got used to having hot and sunny periods when in the past – during the late 1980s and early 1990s – we had some pretty atrocious summers, similar to this."
As soon as the weather becomes a little erratic the ugly issue of climate change looms into view. But Hutchin-son says: "It's all too easy to blame all weather on global warming.
"Whether we get a wet or dry summer, people say it's due to global warming.
"The trouble is we've only got a couple of hundred years' worth of records to go back on, so although there may be identifiable trends that indicate climate change, it's difficult to find them.
"At the moment, I blame bad weather on the natural variability of weather. This is all part of a changeable British summer."
Why we need rain
While long periods of rain might limit our sunbathing time, our environment loves the attention of water. Anna Wetherel, a hydro-geologist from Natural England – the Government agency responsible for the protection and improvement of the natural environment – explains that our eco-system is constantly performing a delicate balancing act.
She says: "Everything – humans, plants and animals – needs water to survive and while occasionally too much water can cause problems such as flooding, getting the average amount is very important. A lack of water is detrimental to all of us."
Although Brits might hanker after the sunnier climates of places like Australia, this sunny continent recently experienced the crippling effects of a terrible drought. Lack of rainfall led to crop failure – resulting in an increase in poverty – water shortages and ferocious fires.
"People in Britain will remember the droughts of 2002 and 2003," says Wetherel. "Luckily, all most people here had to cope with was a hosepipe ban. But the results can be a lot worse. Rain is vital to keep things ticking over nicely."
The full article contains 685 words and appears in n/a newspaper.
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Last Updated:
16 July 2008 12:53 PM
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Source:
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Location:
Halifax