Calderdale constituencies shift from Leave to Remain over Brexit

Brexit debate
Brexit debate

More than 100 Westminster constituencies which backed Leave in the 2016 referendum would now vote to remain in the European Union, according to new analysis of polling

The findings suggested that most seats in England, Scotland and Wales now contain a majority of voters who want to stay in the EU.

Across Yorkshire and Humber the study’s findings reveal that constituencies including Barnsley Central, Rotherham and Hull West and Hessle showed some of the biggest increases in the Remain vote.

Meanwhile the poll shows constituencies including Bradford East, Calder Valley and Halifax would switch from Leave to Remain.

Among constituencies found to have switched from Leave to Remain were arch-Brexiteer Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Michael Gove’s Surrey Heath and the seats of pro-Brexit Labour MPs Frank Field in Birkenhead and Graham Stringer in Blackley and Broughton.

The analysis suggested the development was driven by growing doubts about the case for Brexit among Labour voters in the north of England and Wales.

The figures were produced by consumer analytics company Focaldata, drawing on two YouGov polls of a total of more than 15,000 people.

The findings will increase pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to reconsider Labour’s refusal to give its backing to a second referendum on EU membership

Even though polls regularly report a strong lead for Remain among Labour voters, a majority of the party’s constituencies backed Brexit in 2016, leaving party strategists wary of any suggestion that it might not deliver withdrawal.

The poll found that 112 out of the 632 seats in England, Scotland and Wales had switched from Leave to Remain since the referendum. These included 97 English seats, 14 in Wales and one in Scotland. Under the Focaldata model, 341 constituencies now have a Remain majority, up from 229 in 2016.

The analysis, conducted for the Best for Britain campaign for a second referendum and the Hope Not Hate campaign against racism, puts Remain on 53 per cent support, against 47 per cent backing Leave.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Vince Cable said: “Whether someone voted to leave or stay in the EU in 2016, nearly everyone is disillusioned by the mess the Conservatives have made of Brexit.

“This research is yet more compelling evidence that the British people must be given the final say on any – or no – Brexit deal. The shallow argument against giving the people their say diminishes towards nothingness with every passing day.”